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Examples
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Hanna said he expected Tashnag to stay with Aoun because their 2005 electoral alliance restored Tashnag, which is supported by the majority of Armenian voters, to its full strength after five-time former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri had for years teamed up with two smaller Armenian parties to deny Tashnag the Beirut district's two Armenian parliamentary seats.
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In the end, it remains too early to predict either how the Tashnag will decide or how other campaign coalitions will evolve in the Metn, despite the ongoing flurry of talks between the party and the various representatives from the feuding political camps, the analysts said.
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The choice before Tashnag comes down to continuing its relationship with Change and Reform Bloc head MP Michel Aoun, the March 8 coalition's top Christian politician, or returning to a previous partnership with Metn heavyweight MP Michel Murr and his freshly minted electoral ally, Phalange Party chief and former President Amin Gemayel, said Walid Moubarak, director of the Institute of Diplomacy and Conflict Transformation at the Lebanese American University.
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At the same time, rumors persist that Tashnag backers in Armenia are working with Iran and so will urge the party to forge an electoral coalition with the Iranian-backed March 8 alliance,
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Tashnag will also have to factor in its traditionally close ties to the country's presidents, as well as pressures from Armenian groups outside Lebanon favoring one side of the political rift here, he added.
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I will insists on having a bloc of 4 candidates, 2 Maronites and 2 Orthodox and if my alliance with the kataeb fails to materialize, will launch an independent campaign with one seat for the Tashnag party.
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General Aoun and Tashnag will announce their electoral list for Ashrafiyah today at 6
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In considering Aoun, Tashnag and Armenian voters will be asking whether Aoun, the popular politician in the predominantly Christian Metn region, will have coattails long enough to carry the rest of his lists into the legislature and unseat March 14 as the parliamentary majority, said retired General Elias Hanna, who teaches political science at Notre Dame University.
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Aoun, who will be allied with the Armenian Tashnag party is expected to announce his electoral list soon.
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All the analysts said a majority of Armenians backed Tashnag and have usually voted as a unified bloc, but Hanna said some in the Armenian elite were wavering in their support for the party and its MP Hagop Pakradounian because Pakradounian did not reflect the elites 'interests.
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