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Examples
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However, retailers of durable and semi-durable goods "will feel the most pain, but sales of non-durables are also expected to slow significantly."
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The decline in retailer confidence was a result of slower sales growth in the semi-durable goods (including clothing and footwear) and, in particular, the durable goods category (including furniture, household appliances and electronic goods), the BER said.
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Nevertheless, the BER expected the moderation in consumer spending on non-durable goods to be significantly smaller than the expected slowdown in the growth of durable and semi-durable goods.
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Looking ahead, the growth in sales of semi-durable goods should continue to wane, while sales of durable goods were expected to contract further as the impact of the credit act and the lagged effect of the 300 basis points increase in the prime interest rate since June
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However, retailers reported weaker sales of semi-durable (i.e. clothing, footwear, textiles and furnishings) and durable goods
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The rise in consumer confidence was in line with the BER's retail survey, which showed that, except for semi-durable goods and new vehicles, sales continued to do well during the first quarter of 2007.
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"The marked deterioration in business conditions in the interest rate/credit sensitive durable and semi-durable goods categories can probably be ascribed to the cumulative impact of the 300 basis points increase in the interest rate since June 2006 and the implications of the National Credit Act (NCA)," the BER said.
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Expenditure on semi-durable goods came down to eight percent in the fourth quarter, while expenditure on non-durable goods picked up to six and a half percent in the fourth quarter.
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The strong performance in household consumption expenditure can be attributed to real outlays on durable and semi-durable goods, both of which continued to increase at double-digit rates from around 2004.
ANC Today 2006
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Spending on durable goods slowed from 21 percent in the second quarter to a "still brisk" eight percent, while that on semi-durable goods rose from 13.5 percent to 19.5 percent.
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