superforecasters

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The individuals with the best track records were anointed “superforecasters”, and they continued to trounce others involved in the competition.

The Big Idea: can you learn to predict the future? Sam Glover 2022
In a two-year competition involving more than 700 participants, he found that the top-performers – whom he dubs “superforecasters” – were far more willing to change their opinions in the face of new evidence than the average person.

Why is it so hard to change your mind? David Robson 2026