trial-heat

Last year Weld ran just about even with Kennedy in a trial-heat opinion poll, a result that once again revived the talk that Kennedy was vulnerable.

See Teddy Run Scared 2008

We argue that it is inappropriate to naively compare market forecasts of an election outcome with exact poll results on the day prices are recorded, that is, market prices reflect forecasts of what will happen on Election Day whereas trial-heat polls register preferences on the day of the poll.

Midas Oracle .ORG 2009

By our tests, the IEM election markets are not better than trial-heat polls for predicting elections.

Midas Oracle .ORG 2009

Party bosses and candidates aren't inclined to ponder topics beyond the top issues, candidate name IDs and trial-heat ballots.

Home/News 2009

Election markets have been praised for their ability to forecast election outcomes, and to forecast better than trial-heat polls.

Midas Oracle .ORG 2009

Plugging the second-quarter growth rate and the Labor Day preference poll numbers into the trial-heat equation produces a forecast that Senator McCain should be expected to receive 52. 7\% of the two-party popular vote.

Latest Articles 2008

Campbell's model combines Gallup's Labor Day "trial-heat" poll findings (head-to-head polls) with second-quarter GDP growth rates into a forecasting model that - in its most recent specifications, from 1992 to 2004 - has been accurate within one-half a percentage point of Gallup's final pre-election survey.

Stop The ACLU 2008

This is based on the pre-convention preference poll split of 50\% for McCain, a net convention bump of 2. 7\%, and the secondquarter GDP growth rate used in the trial-heat forecast equation.

Latest Articles 2008

Robert S. Erikson (Columbia University) and Christopher Wlezien's (Temple University) forecast model analyzes a combination of leading economic indicators and trial-heat polls from August 2008 to predict the election's final outcome.

Lockergnome 2008

Symposium editor James E. Campbell's (University at Buffalo, SUNY) "Trial Heat" forecast model integrates the incumbent's trial-heat Labor Day Gallup numbers and the real growth in the GDP in the second quarter of the election year.

Lockergnome 2008