So you're on a game show, and Monty Hall tells you that there are three doors in front of you. Behind one door is a car. Behind the other two doors there are goats. You want the car, and you pick door No. 1. Monty Hall then tells there's a goat behind door No. 3, and he offers you the chance to switch from door No. 1 to door No. 2. Should you change your answer?
First, I want to see the goat behind door #3. Trust no one, especially Monty Hall. Second, statistically speaking, I should accept Hall's offer to switch from door #1 to door #2. If I do not change my initial decision, I still have the same 1 in 3 chance to win the car; whereas, if I switch to door #2 I have increased my chance to win the car by another 1/3. But, statistics lack the human element of the "gut" feeling, so I'm sticking with door #1.
I think the value has to include a sustainability quotient. If the goat is a lactating female, you've got a bit more of a fair fight on your hands. If you've purchased a tiny nub of goat cheese recently, you get my drift.