overpredict

By the way, beyond the ethical issues, the failure to consider ethical and social restraints against abusive behavior means that economic models generally greatly overpredict economic crimes by firms.

Economics and Moral Intuition, Arnold Kling | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty

All you have to know about racial bias and the SATs is this: The scores of black students overpredict their performance in college.

Look Who's Against Testing Now

The SAT turns out to overpredict the performance of black students at colleges.

War Power Grab

Since a recent 2-year average is not higher than a 20-year average from 1906 through 1925, we conclude that either such models overpredict the signal, or other compensatory climate changes are occurring.

Unthreaded #8 « Climate Audit

Looking at the graphic here, the models overpredict September arctic ice for the last 30 yrs, and outside the std dev for a decade or so.

Unthreaded #9 « Climate Audit

In fact, don't SAT scores overpredict actual black academic performance once admitted to college?

More on "Should we ignore the racial gap in IQ?"

Note that regression estimates for 1965–1999 overpredict ring width values.

Upside-Down Quadratic Proxy Response « Climate Audit

At longer time scales, energy conservation tells us that the ocean-atmosphere system must necessarily average to equilibrium, so using a fluctuation spectrum derived at ENSO timescales would probably tend to overpredict long-term fluctuations.

Pelletier [2002] on Temperature Autocorrelation « Climate Audit

In support of this argument amicus representing the American Psychiatric Association and other professional societies cites numerous articles which indicate that therapists, in the present state of the art, are unable reliably to predict violent acts; their forecasts, amicus claims, tend consistently to overpredict violence, and indeed are more often wrong than right.

Law In The Health and Human Services

For instance, if you underpredict every below-average country by 50% of the difference, and you overpredict every above-average country by 50% of the difference, you'll get a perfect correlation, but really crappy guesses.

Sabermetric Research