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“The EU approach appears to be dependent on those adjustment factors developed in-sample.”
“But if differences in the subtle details of different models that have similar plausible in-sample performance are shown to yield significantly different forecast distributions, then no coherent picture emerges from the overall ensemble.”
“But by studying the in-sample behaviour of ensembles under a variety of models, we can tune each model until an ensemble of initial conditions under each and every individual model can at least bound the in-sample observations, say from 1950 to 2000.”
“The continuous feedback from making forecasts on new unseen out-of-sample data is largely denied the climate modeller, who is constrained by the nature of the problem to forever violate one of the first maxims of undergraduate statistics: never restrict your analysis to in-sample statistics.”
“By construction, climate modelling is an in-sample science.”
“In any event, we can still use these differences in the forecast distributions to gain physical insight, and improve each model individually using the in-sample data yet again.”
“I know stock pickers who know way more than I do about stocks and the underlying corporations, but if they tell me that based on in-sample data that they can demonstrate this unfailingly successful stock selection filter i.e. a process very susceptible to data snooping and model over fitting, I do not have to be their equal in stock knowledge to know enough to be very wary of their advice.”
“To my mind, this study appears very analogous to an investment strategy that has been derived from data mining and the over fit nature of the in-sample results becoming apparent only after sufficient years of seeing out-of-sample results.”
“The claims and methods for the HS certainly show much evidence of data mining, but since in their case the in-sample results show little or no correlation, out-of-sample results will be of little evaluative worth.”
“But avoidance of explicit specification search will not cure our discomfort with sloppy in-sample ‘œtests’ nor will it insulate us from dishonest or deluded results.”
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