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Greece's finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, believes his country's dilemma about whether to pay the price and stay in the euro is a moment of destiny; but a Greek exit – "Grexit", as it is being called – would send shockwaves throughout the world economy.
Grexit would be voluntary, but it might well be triggered by diminished willingness on the part of the Troika to bend the rules to allow it to continue to pay out the tranches under the Greek Troika program.
"Grexit would effectively start with the urgent passage of a currency law through an emergency decree by the Greek government of the day," they added.
"Grexit would likely take place in a context where Greece is no longer willing to make the minimum efforts necessary to be judged to be in compliance with the fiscal and structural reform demands of the Troika," the Citigroup observers said.
"We think that the costs of Grexit to the rest of the euro area would be moderate, as we expect post-Grexit exit fear contagion would be contained by policy action,"
Grexit to 50 per cent over the next year and a half.
Belief that EMU fall-out from Greek exit - or "Grexit" in market slang - can be contained by firewalls and more fiscal austerity assumes that Greece is a special case, alone brought low by turpitude.
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