from Wiktionary, Creative Commons Attribution/Share-Alike License

  • v. Present participle of overfit.
  • n. The action of the verb overfit


Sorry, no etymologies found.


  • (As for Jeffrey's 1968/2008 presidential campaign parallel ... it's not a bad exercise, but in the main I think Jeffrey's "overfitting" the data too muchly.)

    Your Right Hand Thief

  • This is completely consistent with our understanding of MBH methods – a classic spurious regression of the bristlecones combined with massive "overfitting" from essentially white noise series in the calibration period, thus the breakdown of the cross-validation R2.

    Rutherford et al [2005] Collation Errors « Climate Audit

  • The statistical issue that it turns over – and it’s something that isn’t considered anywhere in multivariate statistical literature – is what happens when you mix one “classical” univariate spurious regression with multivariate overfitting which is my model for MBH.

    Plant Deposits at Quelccaya « Climate Audit

  • As in Brown’s multivariate calibration confidence formula, which takes this kind of overfitting large amount of responses into account in the uncertainties.

    Overfitting by Inverse Regression « Climate Audit

  • Then again you can do much worse than just using normal assumptions (maybe autochecking a few heavy-tailed/one-sided/clever alternatives using some information criterion against overfitting) and churning on that. 95% of the result in 5% of the effort …

    NeuroBayes: Sometimes sans Neuro « Imaginary Potential

  • Avoiding that disaster — called overfitting — is a bit of an art; and being very good at it separates masters like BellKor from the rest of the field.

    February « 2008 « Isegoria

  • It's nonsense; any QSAR modeler can explain in details the dangers of overfitting, extrapolation, etc, etc.

    "The End of Theory: The Data Deluge Makes the Scientific Method Obsolete"

  • If we move away from 50-100 molecules in our QSAR training, but use 10k of chemically alike molecules, then our modeling approaches (if capable of handling the matrices) would have a much, much smaller chance for overfitting, extrapolation (there is much, much more interpolation now), etc.

    "The End of Theory: The Data Deluge Makes the Scientific Method Obsolete"

  • The order would be constrained to a realizable result if and only if the reduction of scale could be contained somehow correctly in the “forcing” of the illposed boundary of the non-physical, which could not by defintion be determined a priori, but with a nonphysical constraint must be post facto and will tend to suffer overfitting as one tries to determine the magnitude assuming one has the order of magnitude correct.

    Possible ITCZ Influence « Climate Audit

  • I observed the overfitting problems in a post here

    Woodhouse's Temperature Proxies!!! « Climate Audit


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  • "Did you by any chance mean overfishing?"

    May 8, 2013

  • Did you read an article yesterday about overfitting? It's enough to make a person trained in statistics cry.

    August 21, 2008

  • "In statistics, overfitting is fitting a statistical model that has too many parameters. An absurd and false model may fit perfectly if the model has enough complexity by comparison to the amount of data available. Overfitting is generally recognized to be a violation of Occam's razor."


    August 20, 2008